In late July, the Duchess of Sussex’s lifestyle range, called As ever, launched a “rich, vibrant” blackberry spread alongside a softly lit video of her picking the fruit.

A month later, Meghan and her husband Prince Harry are returning to live in the UK just as blackberry season ends. Perhaps we can expect another video soon, shot on these shores.

Or perhaps not, because experts say the Harry and Meghan brand is at a crossroads.

After the Duke and Duchess of Sussex’s acrimonious exit from the Royal Family in 2020, the projects marking their fresh start in California – from streaming to signature scents – have mostly failed to find large audiences, and experts say it’s unclear where the couple goes from here.

Their return to the UK has surprised many and we don’t know their reasons for the switch, but what’s clear is that they will not be working royals when they return. So what could they be doing instead?

Andrew Stephen, the L’Oréal professor of marketing at the University of Oxford’s Saïd Business School, says that after they moved to the US the Sussexes “attracted enormous attention and were initially very good at monetising it. But I don’t think they have been as successful at converting that initial success into an enduring brand.”

Now, he says, they have a “fragmented portfolio spanning social impact, entertainment and lifestyle, which has made it difficult to know exactly what their brand stands for”.

After splitting with the Royal Family, the Sussexes said they would work to become financially independent. They began life as civilians with interviews about their relationship with the royals before pivoting to new fields of interest, including media production and lifestyle, which now appears to Meghan’s focus.

The couple’s aim, according to the mission statement of their Archewell Productions company, is to highlight “our common humanity and celebrate community”. They have continued to promote the Invictus Games, the sporting event for injured service men and women that Prince Harry founded, and launched charitable projects around the world through Archewell Philanthropies.

They are widely reported to have earned $100m (£73m) from a deal with Netflix in 2020. An agreement in the same year with Spotify to produce podcasts was reported to be worth $25m (£18m).

By most metrics, it would be hard to call either of those projects a success. The five years of the Netflix deal yielded five shows, including the six-part series Harry & Meghan and two series of the lifestyle show With Love, Meghan, drawing underwhelming streaming numbers. The deal was replaced last year by an arrangement giving Netflix a first look at any pitches from the couple. Only one new Archewell production has been announced so far this year.

Meanwhile, in 2023, a joint statement from Archewell Productions and Spotify said they had “mutually agreed to part ways”. Spotify confirmed it was not renewing Meghan’s 12-episode podcast Archetypes for a second series.

One challenge facing the Sussexes on their return is that they are once more associated with the Royal Family from which they have tried to stay separate, says Stephen.

“It could make them feel more culturally relevant by bringing them closer to the centre of British royal life,” he says, “but it would also reinforce how dependent their distinctiveness remains on royalty, potentially undermining their attempt to build a more independent, American-style celebrity, media and lifestyle brand.”

The fact the Sussexes have switched between projects brings risks to their brand, says Susan Fournier, a branding expert and former professor at Harvard Business School and Boston University. She says the couple went from royal insiders, giving a glimpse into a secret world, to royal critics, then from media producers to, in Meghan’s case, a lifestyle influencer.

“Every time a brand does a 180 like that, you can’t go back,” Fournier tells the BBC. The most successful brands, she says, are consistent in the image that they present – and a return to the UK risks looking like another U-turn.

A solution, Stephen says, would be for them to focus on “a coherent portfolio of focused businesses and credible causes”.

The couple have other income sources, from inheritance to the sales of Harry’s memoir Spare, which was the fastest-selling non-fiction book in the UK since records began in 1998. A return to acting for Meghan even appears possible.

The BBC has learned she is in talks about a role in Netflix series The Gentlemen, a comedy series created by Guy Ritchie about a duke who becomes a drug baron. No details have yet been revealed, but this would be Meghan’s first significant acting role since her marriage to Prince Harry.

Since 2024, Meghan’s professional focus has been on her lifestyle range, As ever, which was initially supported by Netflix before that partnership ended in March. As ever sells jams, teas, candles and other products “crafted to elevate your everyday and inspire moments of joy”, and there is no indication that it will end when she moves across the Atlantic.

One potential opportunity is their mooted move to the A-list haven of the Cotswolds, where they are believed to have spent time earlier this summer.

Laura Stoloff, an American stylist and creative director who lives in London and the Cotswolds with her British husband Harry, sees “a natural connection” between Meghan’s lifestyle brand and Cotswolds life.

“I actually think it could make her brand more distinctive,” Stoloff tells the BBC. “There is still a lot of fascination with English country life, particularly in America, and she has the ability to bring that to a very large, global audience.”

Stephen has a warning, though: “A return to the UK could be a useful brand reset, but a postcode does not reposition a brand. Behaviour does.”